Early-stage mergers & acquisitions (M&A) announcements are expected to be flat in Q4 2016 compared to the same period last year. This is due to reduced levels of early-stage M&A activity in Southeast Asia and South Korea.
Specifically, Southeast Asia which includes Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, is demonstrating a 47.8 percent decrease, while North Asia which includes China, Hong Kong and South Korea, is showing an 8.3 per cent decline in early-stage M&A activity.
The Asia-Pacific (APAC) is the only region along with North America (NA), showing flat or negative growth. Meanwhile Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and Latin America (LATAM) have positive growth at 15.7 per cent and 10.7 per cent respectively.
This is according to the latest Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor (DFP) report. The Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor forecasts the volume of future M&A deal announcements by tracking early-stage M&A activity – M&A transactions across the world that are in the preparation stage or have reached the due diligence stage. These early-stage deals are, on average, six monthsaway from their public announcement.
If we look at key countries across the APAC region, the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor shows the following growth in early-stage M&A activity compared to the same period last year:
- Southeast Asia (which includes Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore), is down 47.8 per cent;
- North Asia (which includes China, Hong Kong and South Korea) is down 8.3 per cent, due to declining levels of early-stage M&A activity in South Korea;
- India is up 64.7 per cent;
- Japan is up 5.9 per cent; and
- Australia is up 6.9 per cent, the first quarter of growth after four consecutive quarters of flat or declining activity.
Looking at early-stage M&A activity by sector across APAC, the Materials (which includes Metals and Mining) and Industrials sectors are the only ones showing positive growth in early-stage M&A activity. The TMT (Telecommunications, Media & Technology) sector is showing a 46.2 per cent decline compared to the same period last year.
According to a “post-Brexit” survey of over 1000 global dealmakers conducted by Intralinks between July 4-8 2016, over 61 percent of APAC dealmakers feel Britain’s decision to leave the European Union (EU) will have a positive or no economic impact on the APAC region.
In the four weeks since the UK’s EU Referendum on June 23rd 2016, early-stage M&A activity in APAC, as measured by the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor, has increased by 1.4 per cent compared to the same period last year, showing little or no immediate impact on the APAC region’s M&A activity.
“Southeast Asia is seeing its first decline in early-stage M&A activity after nine quarters of mostly double-digit growth,” said Philip Whitchelo, VP of strategy & product marketing at Intralinks. “The impact of China’s gradual economic slowdown may be starting to impact the previously resilient ASEAN region, as South Korea and China are also showing declines.”